Socially Responsible Investing 101: Invest in Social Good and Your Portfolio

Posted by | Posted in Investment | Posted on 19-12-2009

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By understanding the performance of socially responsible stocks, individual socially responsible stock, the socially responsible investor can gain the profits of socially mindful investing, either through individually socially responsible investments, or by engaging with socially responsible investment funds and socially responsible funds. In addition, the article also confers the sustainable investing approach in investing with ethics, green investing, values investing, and socially responsible investments.

Although socially responsible investing has expanded dominance in the last numerous decades, countless socially responsible investors are still under the feeling that to invest in social good, they must decline certain levels of portfolio performance. However, with the confirmation escalating that socially responsible investment funds strictly match, if not surpass, their market counterparts, many socially responsible investors are capitalizing their earnings – and their involvement to social good.

Long-term vs. short-term corporate focus

Socially responsible investing (SRI) takes the long term vs. short term investment discussion to a socially alert investing level. In comparison to countless corporations who take advantage of natural assets and human labor for short-term profits, a socially responsible stock drives under long-term natural sustainability, lending itself well to green investing. For example, the oil magnates such as Exxon-Mobile and Chevron have experienced exponential expansion in the last numerous years. However, where will these corporations be in 10 or 20 years – when the oil rigs are pumped dry and clients have switched over to hydrogen-fuel cars? In stark contrast, green investing stress the long-term sustainability of corporate social responsibility on the environment, society, and monetary well-being.

 

Overarching SRI principles

The extensive investment ideology of socially responsible investing are conceptualized based upon unstable techniques of social investing analysis. The execution of social investing in Europe is usually diverse than in the United States, but the underlying essentials are based upon using a set of foundation values. Depending upon the socially responsible investments portfolio or socially responsible funds, the SRI analysis may be based on one or several of the following criteria:

1. Sustainability Practices : This socially conscious investing perspective analyzes whether a company’s business practices are sustainable in the long term. If the business operations negatively impact the environment, economy, communities, or human welfare, then it is not considered sustainable investing for long term profitability.

2. Corporate Governance : This socially responsible investing component analyzes the company’s policies on employee, community, investors, stakeholder, and environment relations. Social investment’s mutual authority analysis is a separate process from the company’s financial outlook.

3. Religious Beliefs : Considered the original father of socially conscious investing, religious beliefs have screened many portfolios. For example, a Catholic screened socially responsible investing portfolio may divest companies that produce contraceptives. Both Christian and Muslim screened socially liable funds are prevalent, imparting strong religious beliefs onto the social investing analysis of opportunities.

4. Public Policy : Geared for socially responsible stock portfolios that include international holdings, the public policy filter analyzes foreign governments’ actions, either on an individual country case-by-case basis, or based upon an international mandate, such as a ban by the UN or NATO.

Socially responsible investment funds’ performance

Beyond the desire to contribute to social good, socially responsible investors are seeking SRI investment performance. Values investing demonstrate that socially conscious investing can be done quite profitably. In fact, in some market conditions, socially responsible funds outperform their market counterparts.

The Domini 400 Social Index (DS 400), the socially responsible investing industry benchmark, has outperformed the S&P 500 since its inception in 1990. According to KLD Indexes, as of November 30, 2007, the DS 400 has enjoyed 11.75% annualized returns, leading ahead of the S&P 500’s 11.21%. The DS 400 screens its index for socially responsible stocks based upon environmental, governance, and social filters, and within its index, there are 250 S&P 500 represented companies, 100 companies not on the S&P 500, and another 50 socially responsible stocks that have demonstrated significant strength in social investing filters.

With the sustained long-term SRI investment returns in the socially responsible investment funds, such as the DS 400, socially conscious investing can match or outperform its market counterparts – dispelling the myth that a socially responsible investor must sacrifice performance for social consciousness.

 

The risk exposure of socially responsible stocks

However, when comparing SRI indexes against market benchmarks, the question begets: does the performance of socially responsible investment funds come at a higher portfolio risk than its market counterparts?

Considering the rigorous screens of socially responsible investing portfolios, the socially responsible stocks are naturally geared towards companies with smaller market caps. Theoretically, the lower market caps contribute to a higher volatility and beta for the overall socially conscious investing portfolio. For example, the Domini 400 has a weighted average market cap of 83% of the S&P 500.

Beta Coefficient: measurement of an investment’s volatility against the market

However, instead of reducing the overall beta, the socially responsible investments screens minimize the individualized corporate risk. By evaluating a socially responsible stock based upon its governance, sustainability and relationship with stakeholders, social screens reduce the economic risk of the individual corporate holding. For example, by not choosing to invest in tobacco, socially responsible investors shield their portfolios from the negative performance factors of lawsuits. Or, by selecting companies that have good relations with their employees, the negative financial reprimands of strikes are curtailed from the socially responsible investment portfolio.

Risk and volatility are not necessarily synonymous in the world of financial portfolios. Whereas beta may be a good indicator to evaluate the short-term probability that a negative event may occur, this does not specifically analyze the individualized corporate risks. Though socially conscious investing portfolios may have higher betas, the risk of the socially responsible stocks in the portfolios experiencing financial degradation is more limited than the market benchmarks.

Alpha: risk-adjusted measurement of an investment’s excess return over “risk-free” instruments

One of the most compelling factors of socially conscious investing is that despite its demonstrated increased returns, the risk does not necessarily increase. Social investing may be one of the few exceptions to the risk-to-reward ratio. In fact, the performance of the socially responsible funds may not be fully indicative of its true earnings, once the lowered individualized corporate risk is weighted. After adjusting for both short-term and long-term risk, social investing’s alpha may be stronger than the numbers indicate. For more information visit our website http://www.sristocks.com

Balanced Investment Strategy for Portfolio Management

Posted by | Posted in Investment | Posted on 19-12-2009

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Balanced investment strategy is perhaps the most followed and successful investment strategy for portfolio management. Its primary aim is to keep a balance between investment risk and return. A balanced investment strategy combines the merit of aggressive and defensive investing strategies. Aggressive investment strategy involves investing in high return high risk investments with the sole purpose of maximizing return from investments. It involves allocating major portion of portfolio capital to invest in equities, equity based funds and highly volatile markets. Investors following aggressive investment strategy often look for comparatively short-term profiting and wish to invest more in growth stocks, and small caps and mid cap stocks. Advantages of aggressive investing include quick profit, high return over investment and no need of large portfolio capital. It can work really well for experienced investors and investors who are very strict in their money management. Disadvantages include high risk, high volatility in total portfolio value and no surety of profit. It less supports novice investors and investor looking for monthly earnings or living costs.Defensive investment strategy is just opposite of aggressive investment; it’s purpose is to preserve the capital and ensure some return from investments. It involves investing in low profit low risk investments like bonds, money market funds, treasury notes, and equities with minimum price volatility and good dividends. Defensive investors look for long-term profits and/or monthly earnings. Advantages of defensive investment strategy include reduced risk, predictable income, better investment planning and diversification of portfolio. This strategy mainly suits beginners. Disadvantages include low return from investments and requirement of high capital investments. In balanced investment strategy, the investor tries to keep a balance between his aggressive and defensive behaviors. It involves balancing of both return and risk by diversifying investments in both high return high risk and low return low risk investments. Balanced investors often follow a portfolio capital allocation rule telling how much to invest in equities and bonds and how much to invest in treasury notes, precious metals and funds. Usually one portion of portfolio is actively managed and other portion is left to grow automatically. Balanced investment strategy can be slightly aggressive or slightly defensive with respect to investments made.The greatest advantage of balanced investment strategy is the diversification of portfolio and hedging against high total portfolio value volatility. It is good for investors looking for medium-term (3 to 5 years) profits. Other advantages include flexibility in portfolio management, better results with better capital investments, (almost) predictable income and manageable portfolio risk. Balanced investment strategy support both beginners and experienced investors and can be an option for monthly earnings for living.

The Importance of Understanding Economic Terms

Posted by | Posted in Economics | Posted on 19-12-2009

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The Importance of Understanding Economic Terms

The term “Economics” is commonly defined as “The science of how people make choices for the allocation of scarce resources to satisfy their unlimited desires.”

Though a major concern, which analysts should pay more attention to, the distribution of wealth has lately become less important than it used to be. The science dealing with this is political economy, which is the science that has to do with the nature of and of economic value, together with the production and distribution of valuable goods and services.

It is very important for everyone to thoroughly understand a set of highly used economic terms, such as wealth, production, value, labor, land, etc, and here are some of the definitions of these economic terms:

· Wealth – all material things produced by labor for the satisfaction of human desires and having a certain exchange value.

Moreover, wealth is material and is produced by workforce and it can satisfy human desires. However, contrary to common belief, money is not considered wealth, if not a medium of exchange, because of which, one can acquire wealth, which also has exchange value.

Production includes not only the producing or manufacturing of goods, but it also has to do the process of bringing them directly to the consumer. The factors that help produce wealth are land, labor and also capital.

· Value – the quantity of labor or products of labor that people are generally willing to give in exchange for something.

The economic value of an item is just what it will exchange for, under normal circumstances.

· Land – the entire material universe exclusive of people and their products.

Land includes not only the dry surface of earth, if not all other natural materials, as well as forces and opportunities.

· Labor – all human exertion in the production of wealth and services.

Both entrepreneurs along with blue-collars are part of this category; labor does not only refer to physical strength, whereby finished products are produced, if not also to mental work, whereby wealth is also produced.

· Capital – wealth used in the process of production, or in the course of exchange.

· Distribution – The division of wealth among the factors, which produce it.

Rent, wages and interest are the avenues of distribution are, and here is also their definition:

· Rent – that part of wealth, which is the return for the use of land.

· Wages – that part of wealth, which is the return to labor.

· Interest – that part of wealth, which is the return for the use of capital.

These factors involved in production all work together and produce a “pie”, called “wealth.”

Further reading on www.economywatch.com and www.economypedia.com:

Economic Terms on EconomyWatch

Encyclopedia of Economic Terms – Economypedia.com

Definition of “Global Economy”

Investing in Property and Looking for an Investment Loan

Posted by | Posted in Investment | Posted on 16-12-2009

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Why invest and why take out an investment loan? People’s needs for investment are as varied as the investment vehicles themselves. Some want to own their home outright, pay the kids’ university fees, or take world trips; while others want to start their own business or retire on a comfortable income. The reality for most of us is that we won’t be able to afford these things on our salary alone (unless you’re fortunate enough to be the CEO of a major corporation). The key to successful investment is to leverage, that is, to use an investment loan to improve your capacity and increase your return. Why invest in property? Investing in property is the safest way to invest, but we also believe in a diversified portfolio to minimise risk. Similarly, Australians have trusted investment property as their favoured investment vehicle for generations – and with good reason. We recognise the cycles, the incredible advantage that appropriate leverage (making capital gains from borrowed funds) offers, the benefits of rent return and taxation relief in servicing those borrowings, and the significant growth achievable over time. It is not unusual for ordinary investors to accumulate four or more properties over 10 years – and the financial flexibility and cash flow outcomes can be exceptional, giving you piece of mind. Property allows you to leverage. With only $20 000 cash invested (plus around $10 000 upfront costs) it is possible to invest in a $200,000 property, making your earning potential greater. Can you afford to invest in property? The question should really be, “can you afford NOT to invest”, whether it be in investment property or some other form of investment? While everyone should be investing to give them more options in life, property investment may not be suited to everyone. Most people on a standard wage can service an investment loan. After all, the investment loan interest is first met by any rental income you generate. As a general rule there will only be a small shortfall on the interest on your investment loan. Traditionally the investment loan shortfall, as well as other costs relating to your investment property would be met by your personal income. Many investors however include a capitalising line of credit in their investment loan package so that they can draw on this to meet any shortfall costs as opposed to paying same from their personal income. Instead, they use as much of their personal income as possible, not to pay any shortfall interest on the investment loan but to make additional repayments to their home loan. This way their home loan is paid off much more quickly. With your investment loan you should also remember that negative gearing does deliver some relief to servicing your investment loan on the way through. While most investors will wait until the end of the financial year to claim their tax deductible shortfall you can in effect claim the investment loan shortfall on a monthly basis. Check out the ATO website on deductibility of interest on investment loans. What history can tell you about property History shows us that all property whether it be investment or owner occupied doubles in value every 7 to 12 years. Each property market is cyclic, that is, it goes through times of fast growth followed by little or no growth. When one market eg Sydney is in strong growth, other markets eg Brisbane will be in a little or no growth phase. The markets are referred to as being counter cyclic – when one is doing well, another is doing not so well. This means for example that when the Sydney’s growth slows, Melbourne’s picks up followed by Brisbane. This is the reason we emphasise the importance of investment property as a mid to long term investment. The key however is to identify the markets with the highest probability of short to medium growth and lowest probability of downside risk. This enables you to build equity faster and therefore add to your investment property portfolio. It also means that there are always new opportunities for investment property as there are always markets somewhere which are experiencing their growth phase. Choosing investment properties in growth markets assists in developing well-balanced, diversified portfolios. Property in the futureIn the past all property was good investment property, and a lot of people did very well out of it. While those days are gone, there are still exceptional opportunities for investors who understand the current market influences such how our population is changing, how family size is changing, how types of employment are changing, and how the economy is changing and what influences it. So why wait? Research property – buy with your head not your heart – be an informed purchaser and most importantly make sure your investment loan is also working for you.

Small Business CRM Software

Posted by | Posted in Business | Posted on 16-12-2009

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An introduction to small business CRM software.

Technology has afforded many changes in today’s market that help the small businesses to be more successful than ever before. One of these technological advances is small business CRM software. Many small businesses are struggling and do not have the money to hire new employees to help keep track of customer information and leads and small business CRM software can help keep track of this information, which allows a small business to run on less personnel. Every small business wants to be successful and success includes having great customer service and small business CRM software can help with customer service and customer relationships. Small business CRM software can also help with the organization of leads and customer information, which will in the end lead to more profit for the small business. Every small business should consider implementing small business CRM software into their business.

There are many benefits to small business CRM software.

You may wonder how small business CRM software can help your small business be successful and the answers to this question are many. Small business CRM software can help you keep track of your customer information. While some email programs do offer some type of customer relationship management small business CRM software has so much more to offer. You can keep track of all of your customer information in one place with small business CRM software. You can also make sure that you can quickly and easily access all of this information with small business CRM software. Easy access to your customer information may reduce the amount of employees you need and this will save your small business money.

You will be able to organize your leads with small business CRM software, which will lead to more profit.

You will also be able to organize your leads with small business CRM software. While some believe that the quantity of leads is important in reality it is the quality of those leads that is most important. Small business CRM software can help you with the production of leads that are quality. Quality leads are the ones that lead to successful sales and you can have more of these successes with small business CRM software. With your small business CRM software to help you keep track of your leads, you will be able to make sure that you get to all of the leads and that no lead is missed or forgotten. Leads lead to sales so having small business CRM software that increases the quantity and quality of your small business’ leads is important to the growth and success of your company.

Small business CRM software can help make your work processes more effective.

Often you may find that what you are doing in your small business is not working and you may want to change some of your work processes to be more effective. Small business CRM software can you to change work processes in a way that will optimize the efforts you put into them. Following up on current customers will become easier with small business CRM software. You will be able to build better customer relationships by using small business CRM software as well. Small business CRM software can revolutionize the way your small business works and help you change things for the better. You will be able to use the small business CRM software to help you cut costs in a variety of ways as well.

It is important to know what too look for when purchasing small business CRM software.

If you are considering buying small business CRM software for your small business you need to be aware of what you should look for when buying small business CRM software. It is important that you look for small business CRM software that can be made to fit your company’s needs so you will not spend money on features that your business has no need for. You also want to find small business CRM software that will be easy for your and any others in your business to use. No one wants to spend hours trying to figure out new small business CRM software so it is imperative that you find small business CRM software that will be easy to understand. You also want to find small business CRM software that will be easy to implement into the system you may already have. Small business CRM software should be cost effective as well. Small businesses often have a limited budget so finding small business CRM software that is budget friendly is very important. You also may want to find small business CRM software that offers technical support in case you have questions or problems with the software. Often if your small business CRM software package does not come with technical support you may not get any support or you may be charged extra for support.

Prophet is the best small business CRM software available and can revolutionize your business.

The best small business CRM software is sold by the company Avidian and is called Prophet. Prophet is small business CRM software that far surpasses any other small business CRM software on the market today. This small business CRM software is the winner of a variety of awards and has much to offer any company, whether large or small. Prophet small business CRM software can be tailored to your needs and is easy to use. It also comes with tech support, which is very important. You can rest assured that you are buying the best small business CRM software when you buy Prophet. Avidian stands behind its’ small business CRM software and you can get your money back, no questions asked, within 30 days if you are not happy with the software. You have nothing to lose by trying Prophet small business CRM software.

Consider small business CRM software to help make your company more successful.

If your small business is looking for that edge to keep you a step ahead of the other small businesses then you should consider purchasing small business CRM software. Small business CRM software can help you on your journey to success and enable you to enjoy more profit from your small business. Go to Avidian.com today to see what options may be available in their small business CRM software. Small business CRM software could be the change in your small business that ends mediocrity and leads your company above and beyond other small businesses to success.

About Avidian Technologies:

Avidian Technologies is a software company specializing in creating software solutions for users of Outlook and Exchange. Prophet, developed by Avidian Technologies on the .NET platform, is the leading contact management and sales CRM software built in Outlook. The company is headquartered in Redmond, Washington. For more information, please visit http://www.avidian.com or call 1-800-860-5534.

Depression 2008: Review of the Economy 2008-09 in India by Economic Advisory Council

Posted by | Posted in Economics | Posted on 15-12-2009

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INTRODUCTION

I remember that it was the mid of September 2008 when the clamorous news regarding the economic turbulence, emerging from US and encompassing the European countries, were capturing big space in the international media. Indian economists, government, leaders and even media were silent on the issue of apprehending the turmoil’s transition to Indian economy. They seemed not worried about the predicament prevailing abroad beyond Indian boundaries despite their being well aware of the economic contagium and the economic contagiousness among world economies especially in this globalization era. They were perhaps over confident on account of the rising inflation rate and the achieved appreciably high growth rate.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2008

As per the Economic Outlook issued in July 2008, the Economic Advisory Council (EAC) of the Indian Prime Minister was of the view that the Indian economy would be able to grow by 7.7 % in 2008 – 09. At that time, the Council had opined that while a large part of the sub-prime losses had been accounted for, further setbacks were possible in the months to come and conditions were unlikely to stabilize before early 2009. The outcome in the first half of 2008 – 09 was broadly along the lines expected by the Council in July. Not only this, but Finance Minister P. Chidambaram was so confident up to the last week of Oct. 2008 that he did not even slightly hesitate to declare at Sivaganga (Tamilnadu) on Oct. 25 that India would not be hit by recession and it would sustain an 08 % (more than 7.7 % as estimated by the above said EAC in its economic outlook submitted in the month of July) growth rate this year despite the global financial crisis.

CONTRADICTORY STATEMENTS

It took though no longer span of time than mere one month when Mr. Chidambaram accepted the emergence of a temporary slowdown in Indian economy. On 24 November 2008, while briefing the media after the meeting with CEO’s, he said that India must be prepared for a temporary slowdown in its economy because of the global financial meltdown. But, he again commented contrarily on Dec. 16 saying, “India is nowhere near recession”. However he added that Indian economy had been impacted by the global meltdown. Here in this comment Mr. Chidambaram accepted the global meltdown impacting the economy on one hand while, simultaneously, regarded the economy recession devoid on the other. It is worth noted here that Mr. Chdambaram made this statement while being in chair as Finance Minister and the statement came after a number of events like three block-closers observed by Tata Motors, three days week being observed by Ashok Leyland, rapidly falling inflation rate, falling banking rates, dismissal of 2.5 % workforce in Wipro, loss of 65000 jobs in 121 surveyed export oriented units etc. (making the slowdown amply clear) had already come about in Indian economy well before Dec. 16. Moreover, the effect of economic depression, starting from America, Europe and other countries of the world, had become clear in Indian economy, too, up to the month of October. Before the beginning of October a decreasing trend started in the export business, the industrial production index and the revenue of indirect taxes, especially the production tax (excise duty). The GDP also decreased during the second quarter as compared to that in the first quarter of the financial year 2008-09. The total export of the country, in the month of October 2008, remained 12.1 % less than that in October 2007. Industrial production index also observed a 0.4 % decrease in that month. The production tax (excise duty) revenue in October 2008 became 8.7 % less than that in October 2007 and the growth rate of FDP in the second quarter (July to September 2008) was 7.6 % as against 7.9 % in the first quarter. Having felt the incoming of depression, the Government and RBI started taking preventive measures. RBI took steps for bringing the interest rates down and the government provided relief to industries by lowering the rates of production tax. However, the industrial sector felt all the so far taken measures (including the last bailout of Rs 3000 billion on December 09, 2008, too) insufficient and therefore was demanding one more package.

On the other hand, Hindustan, Hindi Daily, Dec.15, 2008, states that contrary to the above Mr. P. Chidambaram, as the finance minister of India, in the meeting of World Economic Forum, refused to accept the presence of depression in Indian economy. I can’t understand why Mr. Chidambaram makes contradicting versions and accepts not the things ingenuously. All the same, I appreciate that by doing so he presents himself as a true Indian politician. Leaving aside the (whatever) disingenuous comments of Mr. Chidambaram, there are but enough grounds for us not only to believe but to prove that Indian economy stands now encompassed well by depression, though because of the global meltdown.

REVIEW OF THE ECONOMY 2008 – 09

Finally the Economic Advisory Council of the Prime Minister of India submitted the second report on the ‘Review of Indian Economy 2008 – 09 on Jan. 23. Executive Summery of the report accepts the impact of global economic and financial crisis in Indian economy when it reads as ‘the direct impact of funding constraints on the investment plans of Indian corporates and hence on growth and job creation, together with the second order effects of this development, coupled with the compression in export markets and the second order effects on this count, are the two principal channels through which the impact of the global financial and economic crisis are being felt in India’. The summery further reads as ‘India and perhaps China, would have a difficult time in the first part of the year, but should be able to show a pickup in growth in the last quarter of 2009, if not earlier’. The Council, vide its said report, expects that in the financial year 2009 – 10, the Indian economy is likely to remain relatively weak in the first quarter (April–June) and slowly pick up thereafter and the economy would show fairly strong recovery in growth in the second half of the fiscal year (Oct 2009 to Mar 2010) assuming some improvement in international economic and financial conditions. Overall, the Council assesses that growth in 2009 – 10 would be between 7.0 and 7.5 % or some what above that, with the first half of the year averaging growth close to 7.0 % and the second half an average growth of close to 7.5 % or higher. The summery reveals that it has been apprehended in the report that the merchandise trade deficit is likely to touch historic highs despite the decline in oil prices. But the Council expects that it is likely to be offset to a large extent by higher net invisible earnings.

As regards to the inflation rate, the report states that WPI inflation peaked at close to 13 per cent in August 2008. Consumer price inflation continued to rise to 11 per cent in October and November due to price increase in primary foodstuff. The Council expects that the WPI inflation rate for manufactured goods is likely to fall to 4 per cent in February and fall further by the end of March 2009 and this falling trend may continue for a few months into the next fiscal year due to the base effect, given that a large part of the price surge happened between March and June of 2008. However, inflation in primary foods is stated to likely remain elevated at near about 8 %. The report also expects that inflation in energy prices will be negative, as will be that in some non-food primary articles like iron ore. Overall the headline WPI inflation rate is likely to go down to near about 4 % by the end of February or the beginning of March, with a potential for more declines after that. CPI inflation will also fall, but the extent of the fall is unlikely to match that for WPI, considering the expected higher rate of food inflation and its larger weight in the consumer price indices.

All the same, the Council is of the view that the present crisis has come upon the Indian economy at a point of time where several of its components are in relatively strong shape. It opines that Indian enterprises have learnt the hard lessons of the importance of managing business and financial risks, and are thus to that extent in a better position to ride out the storm of this crisis. Indian banks have also gone through a transformational process. Whatever deterioration in asset quality the present crisis brings in its awake, Indian banks today are better prepared to deal with it than at any time in their history. On Jan. 23, 2009, in Singapore, Mr. Om Prakash Bhatt, Chairman, SBI, while speaking on ’60 years of Indian Republic and future challenges’, also presented the same opinion by saying that Indian banks are safe in the present time of world depression despite here the banks of the world’s big economies are collapsing. He further added that the Indian banks are in a strong position on account of their managerial skill of world level which they had well achieved when doors for foreign banks were opened in Indian economy.

Going through the executive summery of the report, one can conclude that the Council though accepts that the economic crisis (named as Depression 2008) has encompassed Indian economy but it believes the situation to be temporary. Therefore the Council confidently speaks of the Indian economy likely and rather believably to show fairly strong recovery in growth in the second half (Oct 2009 to Mar 2010) of the present fiscal year. The confidence of the Council is based on its belief regarding some improvement in international economic and financial conditions. I don’t agree with the optimistic stand of the Council. Nor I am aware of whether the reason of the Council’s being so optimistic is a political strategy or an economic analysis. Moreover, contrary to the conclusion and the opinion of the Council mentioned in the said summery, some big organizations like World Bank, IMF and National Association of Business Economists (of America), have revealed in their separately carried on surveys that the prices of necessary commodities would go down by up to 23 % in 2009. First time in the last two and a half decades the world may face a decrease in the world growth rate and the trade pool. On the basis of a survey of 185 countries, the World Bank has estimated, in its report titled as World Economic Situation and Prospects that in the first half of 2009 unemployment would be the biggest problem before the world. In addition to this, ILO report entitled The Global Wage Report 2008-09 holds that difficult times lie ahead for the world’s 1.5 billion wage earners. The report further states, “Slow or negative economic growth, combined with highly volatile food and energy prices, will erode the real wages of many workers, particularly the low-wage and poorer households. The middle classes will also be seriously affected”. The report warns that tensions are likely to intensify over wages. Based on the latest IMF growth figures, the ILO forecasts that the global growth in real wages will at best reach 1.1 per cent in 2009, compared to 1.7 per cent in 2008, but wages are expected to decline in a large number of countries, including major economies.

CONCLUSION

Indian economy can’t remain untouched by any economic turmoil in the rest of the world. The present economic slowdown in Indian economy also is an aftermath of the recession prevailing in almost all big economies of the world. Therefore, the conclusions made and inferences drawn by some big organizations like World Bank, IMF, National Association of Business Economists (of America) and ILO on the basis of extended survey and analysis of the world economies are not only applicable to Indian economy but they are believable, too, at least more than those drawn by national agencies like ‘Economic Advisory Council of the Prime Minister of India’ from their own national level surveys. The above said big organizations have not given any indication towards their being expectant regarding start of economic upswing from the third quarter (Sept. to Dec.) of 2009 and onward. Hence the world economic scenario may rather worsen throughout the present fiscal year.

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